General Elections (GE) & Reforms — Some Concerns

General Elections (GE), if they are conducted freely and fairly, may indicate only one thing — political stability. And this is a “BIG IF” we all know. Political stability may be the first thing to achieve, however, it isn’t the ultimate thing that Pakistan needs right now. Let’s assume for a moment (no harm in daydreaming and building castles in the air as they cost us nothing) that Imran Khan / PTI wins the elections as being perceived by the majority of the political analysts. What roadmap does Imran Khan / PTI have to sway Pakistan away from the edge of economic collapse? In my humble opinion, there is none. So let’s not get our hopes high.

 

GEs’, whenever they are held, will lead us to a more chaotic political situation as no political party seems to gain a significant majority to form the government, independently. It will be a usual coalition cocktail or چوں چوں کا مربہ as it has always been in the past. So reforms too, seem highly unlikely to take place. In any case, there will be a huge controversy over GE’s results. No political party is going to accept poll results easily.

 

Moreover, I am afraid, upcoming GEs’ will see a new height of political violence if not planned, scheduled, and monitored appropriately with extreme care. By-elections such as the one in Daska were just a trailer.

 

So a coalition government or a hung parliament that will be a چوں چوں کا مربہ won’t be in a position to undertake/initiate reforms. Now, “reforms” is another interesting topic that we should discuss. The word 'reforms' is quite vague and generic and we should clearly understand its meaning when we use it. The questions I ask myself;

 

·         What do we mean when we say reforms?

·         Do we, really, need reforms? Or do we need a reboot? Or a complete re-doing of system over-hauling?

·         If reforms are necessary, where exactly they are needed?

·         This is a million-dollar question! Where to begin with this process of initiating reforms?

 

Now, if we have clearly defined the need, areas to be reformed, and the first step to take ... here are some bigger challenges that we'll have to face.

 

Who is going to initiate this process of reforms? Whomever he/she/it is, it must have absolute control over every organ of the state. Otherwise, resistance from everywhere — I repeat, from everywhere — would be impossible to cope with. This process of initiating reforms can only be executed if you are an authoritarian regime, military dictatorship or you have a 2/3 or 3/4 majority in the parliament. Any other way of execution will result in exactly the same as it ended after the 18th amendment. Rather than causing convenience, the 18th amendment has further polarized our political canvas. So as I stated earlier, there won't be any party with a heavy mandate from the public, and no martial law (even if there is any, the processed will be reserved when it is lifted).

 

The next point to ponder is, who will have the ownership and oversight of the process of reforms. After this, the challenge would be, how to craft reforms. As, apparently, we acutely lack the capacity for the same. Because if we had such ability, brilliance and able minds, we would not have to face this disastrous situation. Tasking old bureaucrats (the biggest credit we give to any of them is وہ رشوت نہیں لیتا but we are OK if that goof is incompetent) would be a futile exercise. Reforms means, the real reforms. Not like changing from "Police Force" to "Police Service" and changing the color of the shirts from grey to green. I don't see anyone who can lead this initiative.

 

Reforms need a longer period of time to be crafted, executed, implemented and tested. 05 years in government is not enough. So it seems like we’ll continue moving in circles and that too, backward. A grand dialogue may help in building some consensus, though, the probability is very low.

 

Let's be realistic and take a keen look around us. In April, 2022 we observed immense frustration and a kind of hatred among the masses against the military's obvious involvement in Khan's ouster. That feeling, the extent of that feeling ... it is gone. This is Imran Khan we should blame who has openly acknowledged that he was in negotiations with فوج and his followers blindly accepted it without raising an objection. What was a taboo before audio/video leaks, is a new acceptable norm.

 

Last — but not least, if PTI wins and gets a 2/3 majority, PTI’s past performance record, its capacity to deliver, infighting for the power, a habit of taking U-turns, lack of vision and team … all these factor, along with some known unknowns, compel me to remain a sceptic.

 

Hassan Saleem Awan

January 18, 2023